Atlantic & Caribbean Outlook

National Hurricane Center Miami

        
000
AGXX40 KNHC 290800
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

Weak high pressure from the western Atlantic extends westward 
to over the eastern portion of the area. Light east to southeast
are noted over the eastern gulf, while fresh to strong southeast
winds are elsewhere per buoy and latest scatterometer data. The 
pressure gradient between this high and deepening low pressure 
over the central United States will support the southeast winds 
over the western gulf to continue to expand in coverage through 
Thursday. A thermal trough will also enhance winds over the 
eastern Bay of Campeche the next two nights. A cold front 
associated with the low will approach the Texas coast tonight,
and move over the northwest Gulf on Thursday, the north central 
Gulf Thursday night, and the northeast Gulf on Friday as it
weakens. Mainly strong southerly winds will precede the front,
with possible pockets of winds gusting to near gale force. 
Plenty of atmospheric instability will and upper level dynamics 
in play is expected to bring numerous showers and thunderstorms 
east ahead of the front Thursday through Friday across the 
northern gulf. High pressure will become centered north of the 
region this upcoming weekend, supporting mainly moderate easterly
winds over the basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...

Gentle to moderate trades continue over the Caribbean as a weak 
pressure pattern continues, hover high pressure building 
southward over the Bahamas will allow for the trades to 
increase in the trades to the entire Caribbean beginning this 
afternoon. By tonight, fresh to strong southeast winds will 
pulse over the Gulf of Honduras and along the NE coast of 
Colombia. This pattern of moderate to fresh trades over the 
majority of the Caribbean and fresh to strong winds over the Gulf
of Honduras and Colombia coast will persist through Saturday 
night.

Over the tropical Atlantic waters, mainly moderate trades will
prevail through Wednesday with seas of 5-7 ft. A frontal trough 
extending from departing low pressure north of the region will 
reach the northern waters as a cold front by Thursday, 
disrupting the trade wind pattern with light to gentle winds 
prevailing over the northern waters into the weekend. Northerly 
swell inducing seas of 6-8 ft will propagate across the northern
waters possibly starting on Friday night.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Strong to near gale force winds over the far eastern portion of
zone AMZ115 have diminished to strong north winds. Lingering 
northeast swell there is producing seas of 8-10 ft. These
conditions will subside through this afternoon, with the
winds becoming moderate to fresh northwest to north as high
pressure over the Bahamas builds east-southeastward through 
Thursday in response to a weak cold front that clips the northern
waters. The seas over that portion of the zone will lower to 6-8
ft this afternoon and to 5-7 ft tonight. The aforementioned high
pressure will bring light to moderate anticyclonic winds to the 
western portion of the basin through Thursday. Mainly a moderate
northerly wind shift will accompany the front, before it 
dissipates along about 27N Thursday night. After that time, 
return flow will develop and the pressure gradient will increase 
over the northwest waters between high pressure over the 
northeast Atlantic and an approaching front over the inland 
southeastern United States. The strong southerly winds across the
northwest zones Friday will slide eastward ahead of the front as
the front begins to move across the northwest zones on Saturday.
Seas to 8 ft can be expected in this southerly flow ahead of the
front. The front will then reach from near Bermuda to south 
Florida by Saturday night, and move across the northeast waters 
early on Sunday before exiting the area on Sunday afternoon. 
Fresh to strong west to northwest winds may possibly follow the 
front over zone AMZ115 on Sunday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.