Marine Weather

National Hurricane Center Miami

        
000
AGXX40 KNHC 300606
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
210 AM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK FRONTAL TYPE TROUGH WILL MEANDER...OR DEVELOP AND BE
REPLACED BY A SECOND SIMILAR TROUGH....OVER THE NE GULF WATERS
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL ALSO MEANDER OVER THE
NW WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN BECOME ABSORBED IN A RIDGE
BUILDING W ALONG 28N SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT. THEN THE
PATTERN REPEATS AS A TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE NE WATERS AGAIN
EFFECTIVELY SEPARATING THE ATLC RIDGE FROM ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. SEEMS THE COASTAL TROUGH
OVER THE SW GULF WILL APPEAR EACH DAY AND DRIFT W OVER LAND EACH
NIGHT. CURRENT SEAS OF 3-5 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT THIS
WEEKEND.

SW N ATLC...
A FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES E TO W ALONG 33N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE NEAR 31N68W ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
BUT ANOTHER CLUSTER CURRENTLY NEAR 30N75W SEEMS TO ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. FURTHER S...AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG
29N55W TO 24N80W. THIS RIDGE SHOULD RETREAT E TONIGHT ALLOWING A
FRONTAL TROUGH TO ENTER THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 32N78W TO 28N80W
EARLY SAT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE E STALLING BEFORE REACHING
BERMUDA SAT NIGHT THEN MOVE BACK NW SUN AND BE N OF AREA MON
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT AND THIS
MOTION SHOULD MOVE WAVE THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS BY EARLY SAT
NIGHT. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARING S OF JAMAICA UNDER UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ATTM.  A SECOND WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN
MOVING W AT ABOUT 20 KT. ASSUMING THAT MOTION CONTINUES WAVE
SHOULD BE ALONG 73W SAT...80W SUN...AND 87W MON. A THIRD WAVE
ALONG 33W TONIGHT IS SHOWING SOME CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH A
SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR 08N33W AND ESTIMATED AT 1010 MB.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LOW WILL MOVE NW REACHING A PSN N OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS NEXT WED. I WILL MOVE ITS PARENT TROPICAL WAVE W
AT 18 KT ON GRAPHICS TO ALONG 55W SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN LATE MON NIGHT. THE ITCZ IS STRETCHED N ALONG 14-15N
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE TSTMS.

WARNINGS...

SW N ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON