Marine Weather
National Hurricane Center Miami
000
AGXX40 KNHC 041927
MIMATS
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EST SAT FEB 04 2012
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT NOW MOVING OFF TEXAS COAST AND EXPECTED TO REACH FROM
NEAR MOBILE BAY TO TUXPAN MEXICO SUN MORNING...WITH 25-30 KT OF
NLY FLOW SPILLING DOWN ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS W OF FRONT
SUN. FRONT TO WEAKEN ACROSS NE GULF AND SE U.S. SUN THROUGH MON
AS IT MOVE SE...STALLING ACROSS NRN FLORIDA TO WRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE MON MORNING. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
N COAST OF YUCATAN S-SE INTO FAR NW CARIB TO REMAIN SE OF
FRONTAL ZONE BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE..AND MODELS HAVE GENIALLY
BACKED OFF OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW DEVELOPING FROM THIS TROUGH.
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN UP ACROSS STRAITS AND FAR SE GULF
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W...
WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS ATLC TODAY FROM NEAR
23.5N65W TO NW BAHAMAS AND INTO E COAST OF FLORIDA. RECENT ASCAT
PASS SHOWED ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS N OF BOUNDARY JUST E OF
BAHAMAS...WHERE SEVERAL SHIPS WERE REPORTING WINDS NEAR 30 KT.
STRONG FLOW FROM THIS AREA W THROUGH STRAITS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING...WHILE 20-25 KT ELY WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TURKS AND CAICOS AND THROUGH SE
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BEHIND WILL SHIFT SE TO S OF BERMUDA
BY SUN AND RELAX GRADIENT WINDS...WHILE NWLY SWELL FROM BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY FADE ACROSS ATLC WATERS SUN AS IT
PROPAGATES SE TO THE NE CARIB AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. WW3
SLIGHTLY HIGH THIS MORNING AT 12 UTC WITH WRN EDGE OF
SWELL...ONE FT OR LESS. SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FRONTAL INTERACTIONS TO
EVOLVE MON-TUE AND GULF OF MEX FRONT STALLS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND
NW PORTIONS OF SW N ATLC AND SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS S INTO
N PORTIONS OF WATERS. GFS HAS BEEN FORECASTING A WEAK LOW TO
DEVELOP OFF OF GEORGIA-S CAROLINA COASTS ALONG BOUNDARY AND MOVE
NE AND INTENSIFY...WHILE EUROPEAN MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ABOUT UPPER DYNAMICS INITIATING CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER NE ALONG
THE FRONT. ATTM...I HAVE GONE WITH THE EURO MODELS ON THIS
FRONTAL EVOLUTION.
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKEN VERY SLIGHTLY TODAY AS HIGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT SE ACROSS W ATLC...AND GALES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR
SRN WATERS OFF OF COLOMBIA COAST. NEG TILT UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WEAK TROFFING ACROSS FAR NW CARIB AND
AMPLE MOISTURE CONVERGING WITH TRADES TO PRODUCE AN ELONGATED
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG 83/84W. TROUGH TO REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH 24 HRS AND THEN DRIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY E. GFS
MOVES THIS FEATURE FARTHER E THAN OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BUT AGAIN
GOING WITH EURO CONSENSUS. AN OPPORTUNE ALTIMETER PASS JUST
AFTER MY 12 UTC SEASTATE ANAL REVEALED 8-12 FT SEAS OFF NE COAST
OF JAMAICA...OR DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND AN
EXPANDED AREA TO 9 FT ACROSS THE SW AND W CENTRAL CARIB. ALL
GLOBAL WAVE MODELS STILL OVERESTIMATING 8-9 FT PLUS SEAS ACROSS
THIS AREA...BUT BASED ON ALTIMETER PASS...MODELS MAY NOT BE
OVERFORECASTING QUITE AS BAD AS I THROUGH YDA. AT ANY RATE...A
SLOW DECREASING TREND IN WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED SUN THROUGH TUE
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
PERSISTING ACROSS THE SRN CARIB IN CLIMO POSITION. NLY SWELL
GENERATED FROM DEEP W ATLC LOW TO MOVE THROUGH CARIB PASSAGES
STARTING SUN AFTERNOON AND INTO CARIB AND WILL REACH VENEZUELA
COAST AT 14-15 SECS. 20 KT TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC
CURRENTLY CONFINED TO S OF 14N BUT WILL EXPAND N TO NEAR 20N BY
MN-TUE AS ATLC RIDGE REARRANGES. SEAS THERE TO PEAK AT 10-12 FT
LATE MON THROUGH TUE AS NWLY SWELL COMBINES WITH NE WIND SWELL.
WARNINGS...
GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.
.SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC...
.NONE.
.CARIBBEAN SEA...
.NONE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
FORECASTER STRIPLING
